If you follow recruiting, you’ve noticed that UNC and Duke pass on elite talent quite often. On the surface, it seems that someone would have to be crazy to pass on the in-state recruits like Roy has recently. (He’s practically developing a rep for it since NC has been so talent laden…)

Coach K does this too, but it is often overshadowed by the notion that academic standards or cultural differences steer recruits away from Duke. In fact, it is Duke that probably steered away first.

No matter which program you are talking about, you can rest assured that if a kid has certain warning signs, whether it’s attitude, personality, or environment, then the programs eventually shrink away from the situation, although they will continue to monitor it quite closely in case there are developments in a positive direction. They watch and wait for the chance to jump in if the risk level (however “risk” is individually defined by them) recedes.

It’s not the recruits’ fault, of course. They aren’t “bad kids.” They just haven’t demonstrated that they can offer stability in the way the program has chosen to define and maintain organization and strategy. These recruits were raised by their parents, friends, and community. They simply grew into the template their environment asked of them. There is no “good” or “bad” when speaking of personality, just correlations to behavior trends. It’s something that organizations bearing the responsibility of performance and growth must pay attention to in their execution, lest they lose their place as market leader.

So the next time you wonder how the hell UNC or Duke got all those star players to stay an extra year in college, remember seeing Coach Williams or Coach K sacrifice short term gains by passing on a future NBA lottery pick. They know there are extra rewards from using leverage in this way to develop a high-character brand. It all falls into place when the perfect recruit comes along bringing both skill and attitude to the table. Those recruits seem to understand they belong at UNC or Duke, and they come to campus and win championships. Hell, sometimes they even stick around for the celebration.

I’m trying to work out the minutes for next year (assuming Harrison returns). I can’t see any way we keep starting Dex at shooting guard.

Scenario 1: Dex starts at the 2.

Assumptions: Roy will attempt not to play any guard more than 25/game until the end of the year. Kinda have no choice on bigs though.

Rotation:
Marshall 25 Strickland 15
Strickland 10 Reggie 15 Leslie 15
Barnes 25 Hairston 15
Henson 28 McAdoo 12
Zeller 28 McAdoo 5 Walkon 7????

The problem comes when you think about how the rotation would operate. Strickland would pretty much only play the first five minutes of every half at SG. That’s bizarre, to have your starting SG only play 10 minutes at their starting position. Have we ever done something like that in a noncrisis situation??

But if you demote Strickland, you get this balanced rotation:

Marshall 25 Strickland 15
Reggie 25 Leslie 15
Barnes 25 Hairston 15
Henson 28 McAdoo 12
Zeller 28 McAdoo 5 Walkon 7????

Thoughts?

It’s an interesting conundrum. Although Strickland is the SG incumbent, he has heavy responsibilities backing up Marshall at the PG. It makes things simpler if Dex comes off the bench, even though he  might play more total minutes than any other guard, except Barnes.

Here are the 3 candidates to start at the SG position, if Strickland came off the bench:

• Leslie McDonald
• Reggie Bullock
• PJ Hairston

Leslie McDonald is first in line, given the data we have so far. He has the most experience of the 3 candidates, and has it at that specific position, as opposed to the SF. McDonald may have a lower ceiling than Bullock or Hairston, but he may discover his potential earlier. He could be better at untapping his potential. (It doesn’t matter how high your ceiling is if you can’t climb the ladder to install the chandelier)

Reggie Bullock is a wildcard. Who knows what we will see from him next year, due to the conflicting up-and-down data from his freshman season and the unknown consequences of his summer surgery. He is slated to break out at some point, but when that occurs is anyone’s guess. Plus, his only experience is at the SF position, not the SG. Will the surgery slow him down or speed him up? Can he find his shot? Can he share ballhandling responsibilities?

PJ Hairston has the least experience of the 3 candidates, but may be the best shooter. He may have a more physical presence than Bullock or McDonald, which could work wonders for him on the defensive end. He has the disadvantage of coming into practice to learn the system against incumbents. No doubt, he will have to prove himself to coaches in order to jump both McDonald and Bullock in the rotation. He seems like a college SF, at first glance.

One thing is for certain – with Barnes around keeping most of the SF minutes under his wings, there simply isn’t enough playing time at the backup SF to utilize both Bullock and Hairston. Someone will either have to slide down to the PF (not likely with Watts around) or slide up to the SG spot.  The player who shows better at the SG spot in practice may win a greater role in the rotation, especially if Marshall, Strickland, or McDonald miss games during the season due to injury.

When you don’t have the data, you have to go with experience. Bullock has the slight edge over Hairston to be featured as a combo SG-SF. He has an extra year of experience in the system. Even if Hairston is a very fast learner and can digest the system quickly, will Roy use a freshman as a combo before he has proven he can handle one position against ACC competition first?

Do you have an insight or opinion?

If you would like to participate in this conversation, by all means send in an email to uncbasketballrecruiting  AT gmail.com and I will include it in this post…

Hubert’s not rated super high by any recruiting experts, but has a nice set of core strengths with his height and shot blocking instincts. His skills translate very well to the backup center position, but who knows, he could have a much bigger impact than expected. (Emeka Okafor, anyone?)

Hubert is considered a project for his first few seasons, but will be a very valuable asset by his junior and senior seasons. By then, the current Tar Heel post depth will have evaporated. While Hubert is not expected to see much playing time during the 2011-2012 season, the post rotation begins to open up in the 2012-2013 season. If McAdoo leaves for the NBA after one year, only Hubert, Simmons, and any 2012 post recruits will be left for the 4 & 5 positions. To add support to that inexperienced post rotation, Tokoto, Hairston, or Bullock could slide down to the 4 for 15-20 minutes a game.

Profiles

• http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/55826/desmond-hubert
• http://northcarolina.scout.com/a.z?s=78&p=8&c=1&nid=3896111
• http://www.maxpreps.com/athletes/CSgtYEBuD0Kc7ZKQ9-C0Vg/basketball-winter-10-11/profile-desmond-hubert.htm
• http://rivals.yahoo.com/highschool/basketball/recruiting/player-Desmond-Hubert-87011

Articles

• http://www.nj.com/hssports/blog/boysbasketball/index.ssf/2010/12/full_of_promise_new_egypt_basketball_star_desmond_hubert_pushes_past_strife_to_excel_on_court.html
• http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/college/recruiting/2010/11/decision_time_for_terps_target_desmond_hubert.html
• http://www.zagsblog.com/2011/02/17/chol-decision-impacts-desmond-hubert/

Videos

Roy’s had great recruiting savvy the last few years.  Rightfully so, he’s at the peak. He’s more creative now,  in a good way.  He really likes to fill those last spots up with players who have earned their chance with hard work.

Earned it with hard work. Just like Roy did.

Stilman White Links

Twitter Search for “Stilman White”
Stilman White Dominating
MaxPreps profile
ESPN Profile
Carolina March Article
Tar Heel Times

Let’s say they all return on both sides…farther fetched?

Well, let’s pretend that all players decided to return to build media brand and rise with the ship for a big 2012 title run. How does a UNC/Kentucky matchup look on paper?

Net gain/loss…

• UNC: loses Knox; bringing in McAdoo, Hairston, and Simmons
• Kentucky: loses Harrelson; bringing in Gilchrist, Teague, Davis, and Wiltjer

UNC minutes…

Kentucky minutes…

Great matchups…

• Marshall vs Knight
• Strickland vs Teague
• McDonald vs Lamb
• Hairston vs Liggins
• Watts vs Hood
• Bullock vs Miller
• Barnes vs Gilchrist
• Zeller vs Jones
• McAdoo vs Wiltjer
• Henson vs Davis

On the perimeter…

Let’s assume that players progress equally relative to one another in the offseason. Kentucky introduces more speed at the PG spot with Teague, but UNC is able to counter at the 2-3 with more fresh bodies on defense.

In the post…

Again, assuming that players progress equally relative to one another. Kentucky is able to counter UNC offense with more disruptive bodies on defense, especially with Gilchrist guarding Barnes and Davis guarding Henson. Jones and Zeller is essentially a wash of All-Americans. I’d take McAdoo over Wiltjer by not as much as you’d think, but the real advantage to UNC is that McAdoo may see much more opportunity to contribute than Wiltjer.

So, prediction…

Kentucky by 2 points:

• Speed at the PG spot
• Senior leadership from Liggins & Miller
• High ceilings on Gilchrist and Davis
• They won the last meeting, so they get the benefit of the doubt, for now…

Seth Curry Nightmares Duke/UNC 3/13/11

Image Link:  http://www.uncbasketballrecruiting.com/images/seth-curry-nightmares-duke-unc.gif

This video begins at 0 mins 40 seconds and shows the nightmare-inducing Currybombs from match 1 of 3. I know it might be strange to show Duke highlights on a North Carolina recruiting site, but this kid Curry, he’s a damn problem for us! Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer…

Note: For some reason, the above video occasionally won’t play and instead shows up as just a solid black block. Here’s the original YouTube link, in case you need it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmIWyTyw9fE

• 67% to beat Washington/Georgia in the Round of 32
• 55% to beat Syracuse in the Sweet 16 (37% cumulative odds)
• 40%-50% to beat Ohio State/Kentucky in the Elite 8 (17% cumulative odds)

I think that makes our chances about 15%-20% to make it to the final four? I’m no math wiz or basketball guru, so I’ll let you make your own call based on the data. I’ve listed  some vital links you can use this week to analyze each possible matchup. The Kenpom profile page and the ESPN stats page are all you’ll need to make an informed judgment. I’d pay close attention to the schedule listed on the Kenpom page to spot trends.

(Note: I didn’t include odds for the 1st round game, because life would become so moot with a loss to the 15 seed LIU that the concept of odds, probability or personal happiness would no longer be worth discussing. In fact, darkness would most likely envelop the Earth…at least until next year. This article would be long gone, as one of the advantages of having no readers is the ability to actually destroy every circulating digital copy of your work. Requires an incredible amount of obscurity in this day and age. BTW, best method = server fire.)

North Carolina

• http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=North Carolina
• http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/153/north-carolina-tar-heels

Washington

• http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Washington
• http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/264/washington-huskies

Georgia

• http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Georgia
• http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/61/georgia-bulldogs

Syracuse

• http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Syracuse
• http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/183/syracuse-orange

Xavier

• http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Xavier
• http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/2752/xavier-musketeers

Marquette

• http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Marquette
• http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/269/marquette-golden-eagles

Ohio State

• http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Ohio St.
• http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/194/ohio-state-buckeyes

Kentucky

• http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Kentucky
• http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/96/kentucky-wildcats

West Virginia

• http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=West Virginia
• http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/277/west-virginia-mountaineers

I just sent an email to Ben Sherman and asked if there was the possibility to arrange a linguistic cage match between us, a way to sort out the hierarchy and bring organization to a male-dominated market. Perhaps if we were locked in this cage at opposing desks with only a typewriter, a case of Red Bull, and a twitter feed, pack order would come to fruition. Given that situation, either a definite alpha would emerge, or one of us would pass out from exhaustion trying to overanalyze emoticons tweeted from a 15 year old megalomaniacal recruit.

But seeing someone with your same name do what you love (and do it better than you can) brings about painful introspection that leads to useful conclusions. Especially when this person is taller, more handsome, more eloquent, more established, more everything. They are who you would be, if you could be what you wanted to become.

So here is the human question: is there room for more than 1? Is there room for more than 1 team, 1 style of play, 1 champion? Is there room for more than 1 world superpower? Can the US and China share the stage? You either win or you lose, right, with no in-between? Regardless of how well you play, only 1 team chalks up the W, and the other chalks up the L. It’s a zero-sum game, right?

Take UNC and Duke, for example. Although they offer 2 distinct styles, fans can only stand on 1 side or the other. There is no mixing these 2 in our hearts and minds. 1 is evil and 1 is good, depending on your viewpoint.

The truth is, most recruiting fans posting on message boards don’t love basketball – they love the story, the Hollywood script. That’s why recruiting appeals to so many: they want to know the backstory of the characters so they can form an opinion on them. There are so many UNC and Duke fans who are too wrapped up in the storylines, the wrestling script…the cage match. They can’t see the forest for the trees, and therefore, their message board opinions are useless, empty, just drossy text churning through corporate servers giving them a platform to expel their irrationalities.

Holistically, there is a way to enjoy ACC basketball on a higher macroscopic level than the media allows us. However, what draws most people into the rivalry are the quotes, the arguments, and the trash talk. We believe that there is 1 right and 1 wrong, that there are heroes and villains. We strive toward clarity so our minds will be free from conflict, so our internal worldview can align and we can come to inner peace.

The truth is, life is messy. We are not all as special as we may think. UNC is not God’s gift to the basketball kingdom. There are clones out there of you too, clones in your work, in your circle of friends, in your neighborhood, even in your basketball conference. The Internet has brought to our attention the fact that there’s always someone out there doing what you thought made you unique, and doing it better.

UNC loses, time to time. They lose games, recruits, momentum. All you can do to cope with this reality is to find your own way of sorting it out to align your internal worldview. You can be free from all this, if you learn to accept the duality of the situation: there’s no top dog. There is only our interpretation of the truth in the basketball kingdom.

So there’s the problem with most UNC fans on the Internet. They don’t live in a world of compromise, logic, and holistic thinking. They live in a world of “I hate recruit X because they play for Duke and I love recruit X because they play for UNC.” They live in a world of K-rats, Hendothugs, and Dookies. They aren’t analyzing basketball, they are reading a novel full of real-life oversized characters. It’s wrestling.

If the fans struggling with this conflict of 2 can fight through the insecurity and see through the plot points of the script, they can find more enjoyment in the game, in themselves, and offer more insight to the message boards they clutter. They can raise up to a higher level of consciousness. They can progress. Sometimes it takes really accepting the truth to be able to free yourself from your limitations. If you watch Duke for the sake of watching Duke lose, you’ve already lost.

The storylines and propaganda have us fooled that there can only be 1 in this World. Until someone lets go of that fear, they can’t be a true fan of the game or share worthwhile thoughts. They are watching a match that’s already been fixed.

But don’t get it twisted, Tokoto has some court savvy. What makes the image of him in Carolina Blue singular and memorable, however, is that he gives us something tangible to visualize: dunks. Not just normal everyday slams, but jankin’-in-mugs type dunks. JP can attack the rim and just punch on somebody. See, the descriptors really start to fly

Physically, he’s got the tools to be All-ACC one day. He’s usually listed at 6’-5” or 6’-6” and traditionally 190 pounds or less. Strength, as usual with guards, is a priority, and he is getting stronger while adding good weight. Tokoto is lengthy, well aware of it, and knows how to leverage that length on defense.

Offensively, he plays like a slashing guard, although he has yet to be pigeonholed into any certain position, be it a 2, 3, or undersized 4. In my opinion, the position he plays at UNC will all depend on early departures and how his outside shot develops. He’ll presumably land at the 3.

To his credit, he is working on his shooting game from the inside-out, unlike so many prospects trying to chase it down from the outside-in. He’s a strong driver and attacks the rim with spin moves, often drawing contact. He has some mid-range game too, and his father is intent on cultivating that even more.

Once he moves out beyond 15 feet, that’s where the limitations begin. He has his moments out beyond the arc, but who knows if he will have a green light his freshmen season. In terms of dribbling, his handles have tightened up for his junior season at Menomonee Falls, after having some issues with the ball during his freshmen and sophomore seasons.

Defensively, Tokoto will be a terror once he gets his bearings in the UNC system. He will almost certainly be a good rebounder and versatile defender. A large chunk of his potential depends on how he uses his physical tools on the defensive end.

Mentally, he’s solid and coachable. He has very supportive and intelligent parents, well-chosen mentors, and an optimistic, hard-working attitude. His toughness and determination show through in his style of play. As Tokoto has matured, his leadership skills have improved.

So what’s not to like about Tokoto? With his gifts, he decides how high he wants to build his ceiling. High majors programs want(ed) him, from Duke to Wisconsin to Kentucky. Very early on in his career, he developed a strong reputation as an elite prospect, even considered a consensus top-5 prospect by many. Over time, his stock dipped as scouts saw that his skills hadn’t quite caught up with his athleticism.

But make no mistake, UNC is getting a steal, plain and simple. Roy Williams was wise to focus on the correct player and follow through with every promise, gaining trust with the family. Waiting until June 15 for the official scholarship offer didn’t phase anyone, even though Bo Ryan had offered when JP was just a freshman.

The real catalyst who got Tokoto in Carolina blue was JP’s aunt – that’s where the props should go. Thank God she loves the Tar Heels, even though she lives in Durham. She helped inculcate Tar Heel beliefs into JP at an early age, so we could never repay her enough even if she got lifetime lower-level seats. Now her high-flying, mug jankin’ nephew will be slashing on the wing for UNC for years to come. Maybe he’ll buy her those seats one day and pay it forward.

Videos

J.P. Tokoto (2012) Rivals.com from Jon McNamara on Vimeo.

More Videos
http://www.todaystmj4.com/bloggers/lanceallan/84931342.html?video=pop&t=a&bctid=CLIP_ID_187537
http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/962012.html
http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/974648.html
http://wisconsin.scout.com/2/991419.html

Profiles:
http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=8&c=1&nid=4319001
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/67469/jp-tokoto
http://www.maxpreps.com/athletes/kZ-9o6oxKk-tUiBN_7SnOA/basketball-winter-09-10/profile-jean—pierre-%28-j-p%29-tokoto.htm
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/recruiting/player-J.P.-Tokoto-90807
http://hoopsmarinara.blogspot.com/2009/04/open-thread-jp-tokoto.html
http://www.buckys5thquarter.com/pages/j-p-tokoto

News Stories:
http://www.newsobserver.com/2010/06/18/538857/tokoto-gets-lots-of-attention.html
http://www.courier-journal.com/blogs/demling/labels/J.P.%20Tokoto.html
http://rise.espn.go.com/boys-basketball/articles/2010/10/25-quick-shots.aspx
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/5415106/jp_tokoto_not_your_average_high_school.html
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/108083904.html
http://host.madison.com/sports/blog/article_ff1f5e80-2992-11e0-bf6c-001cc4c002e0.html
http://host.madison.com/sports/article_3997072f-6787-59ec-a330-111fec128c4f.html
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/JP-Tokoto-6285/ (not filled out yet)
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/JP-Tokoto-6285/ (not filled out yet)
http://www.mycommunitynow.com/sports/42188542.html
http://www.jsonline.com/sports/preps/114433194.html
http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/articles/?p=31077
http://www.chiareport.com/2010/04/jp-tokoto-from-soccer-legend-to-basketball-prodigy.html#more
http://www.menomoneefallsnow.com/sports/92012229.html
http://theshiver.com/2010/01/self-checking-in-on-tokoto-add-uk-to-offered-and-visit-list/
http://www.germantownnow.com/sports/60322052.html
http://www.germantownnow.com/sports/112881069.html
http://www.tarheeltimes.com/search.aspx?q=j.p.%20tokoto
http://www.highschoolhoop.com/tag/jp-tokoto/
http://marquette.scout.com/2/964413.html