The Tar Heels are stacked with recruits. Although Marc Campbell ended up with the 13th scholarship on the 2009-2010 roster, there is an undeniable scholarship crunch for the foreseeable future. Let’s take a look at the future rosters and where UNC stands for the next few seasons.

2010-2011 Season

• 13 scholarships spoken for

Analysis: Barnes took the last scholarship for this roster. The lineup is completely full, so no more scholarships will be handed out for the 2010 recruiting class.

2011-2012 Season

• 14 scholarships spoken for

Analysis: Something here has to give here. It’s a safe bet that if Ed Davis doesn’t leave after his sophomore year, that he will leave after his junior year. That would put the scholarship count at a safe 13, but still wouldn’t give any flexibility in terms of offering new scholarships. John Henson is a likely candidate to leave after his sophomore year. Harrison Barnes and Tyler Zeller could both potentially be gone by then, but it’s not likely that Barnes will forgo his sophomore year or Zeller forgo his senior year. OK, maybe that’s an optimistic unrealistic view on HB.

So Where Do We Stand with ‘11 Recruits

If Ed Davis is the only Tar Heel to exit to the NBA after the 2009-2010 season, there is still not enough information to be able to confidently hand out offers to 2011 recruits. If both Davis and Henson leave, then Roy would have one scholly to dole out. If Davis leaves and there is also a transfer (not the long shot it once seemed, considering the logjam at the SG and SF positions) then Roy would have also one scholly at his disposal in that scenario. None of this will be known until early summer of 2010, and many of the potential 2011 recruits (Adonis Thomas, Michael Gbinije, Quinn Cook, Cody Zeller) may have decided on another school or committed elsewhere by then.

WWRD? (What Would Roy Do?)

Roy is likely to continue to build relationships with the 2011 recruits who are waiting for their senior year to decide, while starting to really branch out to the 2012 and 2013 classes to build solid starts. If Davis and Henson leave, things start to really open up down low, so Roy would be in position to offer a 2011 PF like Zeller if he blossomed out onto the scene. Adonis Thomas (assuming he is the SF) still would be facing the logjam at the 2-3, even while UNC puts Davis and Henson in the lottery.

Marshall has connected with the Internet fanbase earlier and deeper than any UNC player in history. With such a great personality and a head start in building relationships with the fans, it’s safe to say that he will continue to remain an active personality in the UNC family throughout his entire life. In fact, Kendall Marshall might find himself as the ringleader of the new Tar Heel family one day – the one who can bridge the gap between the old and the young alumni.

On Tuesday, November 17th, Kendall Marshall signed his official letter of intent to play for UNC. Now that he is officially a Heel, take a look at these videos that showcase what the DC point guard can do, on and off the court.

More Videos
http://rivals.yahoo.com/video/recruiting-basketball/Future-Tar-Heel-Lights-up-MDC-31372

(videos requiring Scout subscription – highly recommended!)

http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/898850.html
http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/879757.html
http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/874684.html
http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/856298.html
http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/768865.html
http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/745790.html
http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/714807.html
http://northcarolina.scout.com/a.z?s=78&p=2&c=711566
http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/678342.html

Little did we know when we published this Harrison Barnes article back in June, that the recruitment would grind on until November with the same level of fan frenzy through the entire process. As wild rollercoasting rumors began surfacing, no one could get a read on Barnes, and conflicting reports insinuated that all 6 schools had a chance to land the kid. It all culminated in a climatic presser where no one had the leaked info and no one knew the outcome until Roy William’s friendly face popped up on a projector screen at a nationally televised Midwestern pep rally. I seriously doubt anyone on the message boards could have kept their sanity till a spring decision…

Well, now that he’s officially a Heel, you can sit back and enjoy watching these videos without your conscience reminding you that this kid could be future public enemy #1, Prince of Duke, the one who could bring your chief rival back to ACC conference hegemon status.

Here’s the Harrison Barnes video library…enjoy knowing he’s on our side!

Here is a great set of videos from Scout, but they require a premium membership, which we will glady recommend to anyone who really enjoys the minutiae of recruiting.

More Videos
http://rivals.yahoo.com/video/recruiting-basketball/Harrison-Barnes-impressed-with-crowd-49725
http://videos.espn.com/m/video/27334762/biancardi-on-harrison-barnes.htm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEO3naUuqnk
http://videos.espn.com/m/video/27334762/biancardi-on-harrison-barnes.htm
http://www.vidoemo.com/yvideo.php?harrison-barnes-dunks-5-times-in-10-seconds=&i=M0NoWDJScWuRpRThqVTg

by Gutty

Many different sources of real-time media all converged and turned the Internet spotlight onto recruiting on Friday when the term “Harrison Barnes” became a Twitter trending topic while simultaneously climbing to the #1 and #3 spot on Google trends…oh yeh, and Barnes announced his choice via Skype VOIP video chat. Let’s not even get started about all the rumors spawning from live UStream video blogging by Kyrie Irving, Nolan Smith, Larry Drew, Ed Davis, etc…

It’s surprising that a high school basketball recruitment could amount to such national hype, but considering that fans are hungry for basketball after a long offseason, it’s no surprise the Internet-fueled interest avalanched beyond affecting just the casual fans on the web and crept into higher publicity. Many people who don’t follow basketball were asking things on Twitter like “Who the heck is Harrison Barnes?”

After researching Tyler Hansbrough’s media hype, it seems to me that Barnes has a much higher ceiling than Hansbrough in terms of fame-building. Barnes has a one year head start on fame and he has the type of personality that accepts public relations as a part of the role. Heck, he probably even admits that he’s a role model already. There goes childhood, but here comes success. The kid can’t vote, but he handles himself like a politician. Today he made a wise choice in terms of gaining a mass audience.

Now I know for a fact that Roy doesn’t utilize Skype on the regular. The crapnet itself is not vetted enough for a man with as little time as Roy. But I’ll be damned if he didn’t look a little cutting edge using Skype in front of the whole world. Hey, he’s probably at home tonight  listening to Pandora Radio, playing Guitar Hero, streaming the Duke game off justin.tv, all while torrenting old beach music and shagging on the living room table with Wanda. Why not – we are trending to #1…

Posted by: Gutty

By now, we’ve all seen the AT&T commercial. Hopefully, you’ve also seen the Henson/Wears parody from Late Night. It’s official that Tyler Hansbrough’s fame has reached a national level of frenzy – a frenzy that has now extended into the summer offseason for the first time, showing the breadth of his media popularity.

It seemed odd initially to see Tyler featured in such a broad nationwide advertising campaign. After all, he is considered a polarizing figure to many fans. One can only assume that marketing data must have shown that he speaks extremely well to a wide demographic of Americans. Most consumers probably view him as a wholesome, All-American hard worker and a symbol of excellence. No doubt, his lottery selection to the Midwestern Pacers had as much to do with his skills as it had to do with how well the Indiana demographic would respond to him.

This chart, using data from Google, helps to visualize the peaks and valleys in the 4-year Hansbrough media frenzy:

Every March, the interest in Hansbrough peaked. Each year, interest began earlier and lasted longer at low levels than the year before. Here is a list of the peaks and the related events that caused them:

• March 2006 – Hansbrough’s surprising freshman season, peaking at the UNC-Duke game in Cameron and with the 1st Team All-America selection, and dipping quickly after UNC’s early exit in the 2006 NCAA Tournament
• March 2007 – Interest absolutely explodes after Gerald Henderson breaks Tyler’s nose into a bloody mess and UNC almost makes the Final Four with a masked madman in the post.  Again though, interest trails off quickly, although not as fast as the summer before. A media figure – Psycho T – had been born, and the fires were stoked for the next season.
• January/February 2008 – Coming into a much hyped junior season, Hansbrough’s media interest begins to pick up steam earlier in the season and throughout the beginning of his spectacular NPOY junior season.
• March 2008 – The Tar Heels make it to the Final Four after Tyler Hansbrough’s thrilling jumpshots over David Padgett. Meanwhile, Tyler racks up an impressive list of awards, including the NPOY that ensured his jersey would hang in the front row of the domed rafters forever.
• May/June 2008 – The infamous frat house roof pictures become a brief viral sensation, prolonging the interest much deeper into the summer than the year before.
• November 2008/February 2009 - UNC’s #1 preseason ranking and an insane amount of hype and coverage bring higher interest levels early in his senior season. Tyler becomes UNC’s all time leading scorer.  The media frenzy is now completely self-propelling itself on a daily basis. Lore and legend begin to mix with fact, much like the Bill Brasky satires frequently discussed on the IC and Devil’s Den forums when Hans Brolo was only a recruit.
• March/April 2009 – Tyler becomes the ACC’s all time leading scorer and UNC wins the 2009 National Championship (woot woot). Surprisingly, levels of interest in Hansbrough experience lower peaks than in 2007 and 2008. Perhaps this had to do with media fatigue from the previous two peaks. Perhaps there were more  stars on the team to focus on such as Lawson, Ellington, and the dancing Danny Green. Perhaps iconic incidents such as the broken nose and frat house roof jumping pump up the hype to higher levels than on-court achievements could ever do.
• Summer 2009 – Interest continues into the summer deeper than ever, hitting peaks with the NBA Draft and the release of the nationwide AT&T campaign. Corporate sponsors hover and capitalize on the Hansbrough audience.
• Fall 2009-Infinity – What happens now to Hansbrough’s popularity? Answer in the comments below…

Posted by: Gutty

The Tar Heels need to sign a point guard in either the 2011 or 2012 recruiting class. So far, the top two candidates in 2011 are Marquis Rankin (athletic, raw, combo-esque) and Quinn Cook (short, steady, true point). Roy Williams seems to prefer Cook over Rankin at this point in time, and will most likely continue to visit Cook throughout his junior year at Dematha.

Putting the hard work and effort in on recruiting Cook is a good move for UNC basketball because:

• He is in no hurry to decide. The decision will come in 12+ months.
• He has shown public interest in UNC, including attending Late Night with Roy 2009.
• Keeping connected with Dematha and the DC area talent is important for further establishing DC-Virginia-Maryland area as the primary local recruiting base for UNC. (Ginyard, Lawson, Marshall, McAdoo, Cook)

Plain and simple, there is no room for a Cook scholarship, yet. All 13 schollies are spoken for. However, Ed Davis and John Henson are expected to leave before 2011. There is no harm in continuing to build solid ground with Cook and see what happens within the next 12 months.  If he were to commit to UNC, he would likely see only limited playing time in the 2011-2012 season, as there would be 3 point guards on the roster.  In his sophomore season at UNC, he would be sharing PG duties with Kendall Marshall to make our fleet of PGs completely DC-based.

So what do we know about Quinn Cook?

• Plays for the AAU team DC Assualt, the same squad that has featured Duke players Nolan Smith, Josh Hairston and Tyler Thorten. Cook is very close with Nolan Smith, and both share a special bond due to similarities in their personal lives such as losing a father at an early age and having sisters with similar personalities.  During the high school season last year, Cook’s Dematha team edged out Tyler Thorten’s Gonzaga team by 1 point for the DC-area title. DC Assault also boasts famous alumni such as Michael Beasely, Andris Biedrins, Keith Bogans, Dante Cunningham, Jeff Green, Deron Washington, and James White.

• Height has been listed as 5’ 10” (DC Assault page), 5’ 11” (Scout), 6’ 1” (Rivals). The truth is probably closer to 5′ 11″ or 6′ 0″.

• At Dematha,  some stats show that he averaged 8 points and 6 assists per game as a freshmen, and 14 points and 8 assists per game as a sophomore.  His MaxPreps stats profile offers up some different, incomplete statistics.

• Mainly described as undersized, steady, changes speeds well, good passer, speedy, no apparent problems with jump shot or range. Similar to Leslie McDonald, he may not excel at any one skill, but is well-rounded in many.

• Starting point guard for the 16 and under National Team.

• Mediocre wingspan around 72”-73”.

• Wears size 13 shoes. Maybe he can get slightly taller?

• Can score in big situations, dropping 22 in the Gold Medal game with USA and 25 points with Dematha in a ESPNU-televised matchup against local rival Bishop O-Connell (Kendall Marshall’s team)

• 2011 Rankings – Scout currently has him as the #6 PG, Rivals has him as the #5 PG.

So what’s the prognosis on Quinn Cook?

Cook is first and foremost steady and efficient at the most important position on the court. Although just a sophomore, he already is what he will become and his consistent nature means there are no anticipated changes with his game. Roy can make accurate predictions about his development over time due to his steady characteristics. He is a sure bet in many ways, which mitigates risk at the most important position.

He has a tremendous pedigree, which is a quality that Roy seems to really value with his recent targets. With the Dematha and National Team experiences, he is guaranteed to come onto a roster as a fundamentally prepared Freshman. His head seems to be in the right place. He seems willing to listen to all the right advice and all the right people.

The draw of Cook is his lack of weaknesses rather than his obvious strengths. He will play four years of college basketball with no risk of early departure. His development is not stunted on the offensive end. Although he considers himself a pass-first PG, he can also score more fluidly than your average distribution-only PG.  Cook seems like a similar prospect to Larry Drew and Adonis Jordan, although he seems to score more easily at a young age.

Here are links to keep tabs on Cook as his game develops:

• Ustream

• Rivals

• Scout

• ESPN (via Scout)

• Twitter

• BlueDevilNation

• MaxPreps

Part of what makes this season’s Carolina Basketball team so intriguing compared to the previous two seasons is that there are 11 legitimate players contending for PT, and no real established hierarchy. If I try to sketch out a rotation, I have to start everyone off at 20 minutes and go from there. There are a few megastars in the making (in Davis and Henson)  but as of right now, it’s hard to predict who will get the lion’s share of production done. Here is a few things that are likely to occur, judging from whatever data has been made available so far:

• Justin Watts will get some defensive minutes, due to the inexperience of the backcourt.
• Dexter Strickland’s road to efficiency lies in free throws
• The Wears can bust a zone
• Tyler Zeller’s basketball IQ is underrated, and he’ll have some amazing highlights
• Henson will score through movement from outside-in, rather than from camping in the post
• Henson’s impact can swing both ways
• Our PGs will make you scratch your head sometimes
• Henson will average more rebounds than Deon

1. Justin Watts will get some defensive minutes, due to the inexperience of the backcourt. Watts is capable of providing a burst of defensive intensity for 5 minutes per game. He likes to be very active offensively during pickup games, but don’t expect him to have a green light to shoot. You might see him drive and dish, but with aggressiveness comes risk, and he could also lose his PT by turning the ball over during his opportunities.
2. Dexter Strickland’s road to efficiency lies in free throws. I don’t expect Strickland to shoot an above average percentage from 3-point land. I also don’t expect him to make over 40% of those stop and pop 17-footers he seems fond of on the breaks. However, I do expect him to drive to the basket hard and get hacked often. If he can live at the line, he can be producing in an efficient way.
3. The Wears can bust a zone. If we can’t bust the zone with the guards, perhaps we can try with Travis and David. They should be able to get their outside shot off without restriction and perhaps open up the court like Tyler Hansbrough in his Junior and Senior seasons. In the Midnight Madness scrimmage, the brothers Wear seemed to believe they had the right to take deep shots.
4. Tyler Zeller’s basketball IQ is underrated, and he’ll have some amazing highlights. Perhaps it’s something in the Indiana water that causes Zeller to have almost Larry Bird-like moments, like when he improvs an interior touch pass or  an awkward but accurate scoop into the basketball while flailing underneath the hoop. Zeller has some nifty methods of scoring and creating, and these should start to creep into his game as he gets 20+ minutes/game to become more comfortable in taking risks on the court.
5. Henson will score through movement from outside-in, rather than from camping in the post. Dunks in transition, driving to the hoop and getting fouled, rebounding and starting the fast break – these are situations when Henson seems to score more effectively. Buckets via post-ups and standing around with position in the lane don’t seem to flow as easily. Defensively, Henson looks pretty darn good camping out lower and coming over for the weakside block or goaltend. Roy will earn his golf ball money discovering how to balance those two factors.
6. Henson’s impact can swing both ways. Similar to Danny Green, Henson is capable of bringing a lot of energy into the environment, but that doesn’t mean it’s always going to be good energy. Try to view Henson’s minutes as high risk/high reward situations that Roy will need to manage with skill and mastery for best effect.
7. Our PGs will make you scratch your head sometimes. Both Drew and Strickland have tendencies to make certain errors that will leave you dumbfounded. Problems for both players will show through the cracks given the high exposure, difficulty and history of their quarterback position.  Brainfarts will occur in every game from both.
8. Henson will average more rebounds than Deon. To preface, this is a bold prediction because I am extremely impressed with Deon’s rebounding ability and improvement. In his freshmen year, he averaged 8 rebounds per 40 minutes. In his sophomore year, he averaged 9 rebounds per 40. In his junior year, he again averaged 9 rebounds per 40. That number should rise to 10 rebounds per 40 in 2009-2010. But this kid Henson is like a tree that grows rebounds even when he is out of position. He has arms that scoop up an extra board or two per game, and that is why I believe he will edge out Thompson in the rebounding department.

After attending the annual UNC alumni basketball game, rising junior PF James McAdoo has committed to play at Carolina.

Recruiting, at all levels, goes in cycles. UNC is engaged in a phenomenal recruiting run right now with the recent signing of top flight wing PJ Hairston. But there is a gaping hole on the projected roster that isn’t being directly addressed right now: the men who work in the paint. One reason is that talented top prospects fear (in many cases rightly) being overshadowed. In 2006, Kevin Love elected to go to UCLA and not Carolina for many reasons, but certainly two of them were Tyler Hansbrough and Brandan Wright. Many UNC fans and analysts saw the writing on the wall: there was a good chance Wright wouldn’t stick around more than a season (and even Hansbrough could’ve left), leaving UNC with a limited post rotation for the 2007-2008 season. This was the year ace freshman Kevin Love would’ve likely put the Final Four bound Tar Heels over the top to winning a championship a year earlier.

For the upcoming 2009-2010 season, UNC possesses an “embarrassment of riches” in the post. Lotto pick Ed Davis has decided to stick around. Seven footer Tyler Zeller is a five star prospect who could easily become a top player if he remains uninjured this year. David and Travis Wear are top prospects on a roster so loaded they might only play spot minutes. And, the biggest prospect of them all, John Henson is ready to shine on the national scene. (note: Deon Thompson is not listed because he’s a senior and won’t scare off any recruits.)

So why am I writing an article about a dire need for post players? Early departures, of course. It’s unlikely, but definitely possible, that Zeller, Davis, and Henson could all leave after just this coming season. UNC’s magnificent temple of a post rotation would be reduced to ashes beneath David Stern’s phony smile. And while this prospective disaster (or a lesser but significant number of departures) is very much a reality, the situation is tough to explain to a 17 year old high school athlete who is considering UNC.

Tar Heel fans could worry all they wanted about how Brandan Wright was going to leave early and stick UNC with lackluster post play for a season. But Kevin Love was not going to gamble millions on it, and probably rightly so. Love would’ve already been sharing time with Hansbrough, and if Wright had stayed he wouldn’t have started. At UCLA he was guaranteed a starting position and instantly became one of the best and most prominent players in the nation, earning a high lottery selection in the loaded 2008 NBA draft. Not selecting North Carolina was the right choice, especially for a big man as focused on himself as Love.

Right now, Roy Williams and company are exploring the acquisition of a small forward/power forward combo for 2010-2011 to be played as a post player in the event of an emergency. Stud centers like Josh Smith are not interested in coming to Carolina, and he probably shouldn’t be. But in my mind, there’s no gamble on whether or not Ed Davis and John Henson will be around for the 2011-2012 season. They will be gone. And yet the UNC staff is not yet targeting big men because they know that kids see a logjam down low.

Let us be clear on this: there is no emergency. The possibility of a slight dip in quality post players brought on by overwhelming recent success is a “problem” that almost every school would welcome. But the Tar Heel staff is worried about it, because they know that the 2010-2011 season could be the next year to win it all. The timing will be right; the backcourt will be stabilized; the mix of new hotshot freshmen and super talented vets will be right; all the tools should be present to dominate the tournament again only two years after winning it all. But if no freshman post player can be secured, and the worst departure scenario becomes a reality, UNC may have another “disappointing” year like 2007-2008 where Thompson and Stepheson simply couldn’t effectively back Hansbrough.

Yes, the title would come a year later. And if 2010-2011 is bogged down by an absence of a deep post rotation, there could still be another good opportunity in 2011-2012. But why take chances? Hopefully another big man who’s not afraid of competition like Ed Davis can be located. If that can happen, Carolina fans could be celebrating as not just the National Champions once again, but being regarded as the undisputed top program in the NCAA. But until Terrance Jones or Harrison Barnes, two top prospects for 2010-2011, sign up UNC might have to wait just a little longer for unrivaled supremacy. As Roy would say, “dang it.”

Deon Thompson, now embarking upon his senior year at North Carolina, faces the stiffest competition for front court playing time since he became a Heel. Interestingly enough, this is also the year where Thompson has the opportunity to emerge from behind Hansbrough’s ample shadow. Thompson will, at the very least, continue to be a starter for the foreseeable future. But will Thompson break out? Will he be again dwarfed by a returning lottery pick Ed Davis, a now bulked up seven foot Tyler Zeller, or a barrage of identical twins?

Thompson has not engaged in the consistent improvement that Tar Heel fans have come to expect. His points and rebounds per game have increased correspondingly with his increased playing time. But his offensive efficiency, rebounding, and turnovers have remained almost precisely the same. And these numbers are not mind blowing. In one area of need that should be correctable, free throw shooting, Thompson has languished at 65% from freshman to junior year.

Now it must be noted that Thompson has had to play second fiddle to Tyler Hansbrough for nearly his entire career. The only time Thompson was the first option was at the start of the 2008-2009 championship run when Hansbrough was injured. And during this time, his boosters will point out, Thompson did shine. He shot well, rebounded more intensely, and looked to be a player transformed. Unfortunately, I believe the prime factor behind this mini-breakout was the inferior competition faced at the beginning of the year.

Thompson has exploded against weaker front courts for his whole career at Carolina. Specifically, Thompson and then running mate Alex Stepheson posted impressive numbers in the first two rounds of the 2008 NCAA tournament against Arkansas and Mount Saint Mary’s. These and similar cream puff games allowed Thompson to shine; but he has been, at best, inconsistent against the big boys in front of the bright lights.

But when it comes to Thompson’s role in the upcoming year, the outlook is still promising in many ways. Roy Williams downplayed the hype for rising sophomore Ed Davis by pointing out that Davis had never yet been asked to “carry the load.” This comment, I believe, was made to praise Thompson for his role as a starter, tone setter, and leader and to deflate the accolades being lavished on Davis. Williams needs a confident, leadership oriented Deon Thompson to continue to start for his team. Another major factor in Thompson’s favor is that experience matters. On a squad laden with freshmen and devoid of its previous core, Thompson will be implored to step up and lead his team.

Competing for time will be Ed Davis, who will surely start alongside Thompson. Tyler Zeller, whose vaunted three point shooting that went untested last year, could prove invaluable on a team with a lack of outside threats. David and Travis Wear, who many believe will see only spot minutes this season, could come on strong.

When summing these factors and trying to prognosticate about Thompson’s future year, the last point in his favor will be Roy Williams himself. While clinging tenaciously to the traditions and philosophies laid down by Dean Smith, Williams will do Thompson the honor of continuing to promote him and feature him as a prominent senior at Carolina. Thompson will start, almost certainly all season long, and the spotlight will be his to lose. Similar to the situation with Marvin and Jawad Williams in 2004-2005, Thompson may not be the best front court player, but he will be treated that way as a reward for a having committed long and deeply to the team and for having forged a bond with his coach.