You Cant Spell Scholarship Crunch Without UNC
by Gutty
The Tar Heels are stacked with recruits. Although Marc Campbell ended up with the 13th scholarship on the 2009-2010 roster, there is an undeniable scholarship crunch for the foreseeable future. Let’s take a look at the future rosters and where UNC stands for the next few seasons.
2010-2011 Season
- 13 scholarships spoken for
Analysis: Barnes took the last scholarship for this roster. The lineup is completely full, so no more scholarships will be handed out for the 2010 recruiting class.
2011-2012 Season
- 14 scholarships spoken for
Analysis: Something here has to give here. It’s a safe bet that if Ed Davis doesn’t leave after his sophomore year, that he will leave after his junior year. That would put the scholarship count at a safe 13, but still wouldn’t give any flexibility in terms of offering new scholarships. John Henson is a likely candidate to leave after his sophomore year. Harrison Barnes and Tyler Zeller could both potentially be gone by then, but it’s not likely that Barnes will forgo his sophomore year or Zeller forgo his senior year. OK, maybe that’s an optimistic unrealistic view on HB.
So Where Do We Stand with ‘11 Recruits
If Ed Davis is the only Tar Heel to exit to the NBA after the 2009-2010 season, there is still not enough information to be able to confidently hand out offers to 2011 recruits. If both Davis and Henson leave, then Roy would have one scholly to dole out. If Davis leaves and there is also a transfer (not the long shot it once seemed, considering the logjam at the SG and SF positions) then Roy would have also one scholly at his disposal in that scenario. None of this will be known until early summer of 2010, and many of the potential 2011 recruits (Adonis Thomas, Michael Gbinije, Quinn Cook, Cody Zeller) may have decided on another school or committed elsewhere by then.
WWRD? (What Would Roy Do?)
Roy is likely to continue to build relationships with the 2011 recruits who are waiting for their senior year to decide, while starting to really branch out to the 2012 and 2013 classes to build solid starts. If Davis and Henson leave, things start to really open up down low, so Roy would be in position to offer a 2011 PF like Zeller if he blossomed out onto the scene. Adonis Thomas (assuming he is the SF) still would be facing the logjam at the 2-3, even while UNC puts Davis and Henson in the lottery.
I am still thinking Roy may be flirting with the idea of CJ Leslie next year.., I know this sounds nuts considering the article above but hear me out. If CJ knew Ed was leaving and Roy wanted more post strength for the 2010 season it would be feasible to pick up the 1 extra scholarship for the year. If CJ Leslie only plans to be 1 and done anyway that scholarship comes off the books before the 2011 season keeping things open for McAdoo and Hairston. The fact the CJ Leslie has suspended his decision until the late signing period furthers the chances of this happening. We all know that if a player has a dream to play at UNC Roy will work out a deal with them to try and get them hence Justin Watts had a similar deal with Roy. I’m just saying it is possible
Norvel Pelle??? I wonder where this came from?
I think that Ed Davis and John Henson will be flirting with the NBA Draft. So, that leaves two new scholarships on the table. We definitly don’t need any more big men… I think Roy should recruit hard for Quinn Cook and Michael Gbinije. That way we will be two deep at every position. It will be like having the ACC first team and ACC second team on bench from PG to C.
If both Ed (almost a guarantee to leave after this season) and John Henson (probably not cause he knows he needs to bulk up) leave after this year, then we will only have 3 true post players (Wear Twins and T Zeller). We would offset that in the 2010-11 year with addition of McAdoo, but next year would only have 3 post players, which would free up more room for Roy to go small and play Graves with Barnes maybe, but as hard as it is to believe, we would be short of post players next year IF Henson leaves.
Well as of the beginning of March, we know that Ed is hurt and not going anywhere. John has played well, but not well enough to earn him a spot in the draft. So… here is the time to start speculating about the 2010-2011 season. Here are my starters: Ed Davis, John Henson, Harrison Barnes, Will Graves and Larry Drew. I feel like Houston is calling our names. What do you think?
I wonder what people’s thoughts are on the prospects of 2010-2011 and the guard situation. This has been a bad yea and I was disappointed to know LD,II went to California last summer rather than stay in Chapel Hill to further learn the system and prepare to take the “keys to the car”. Can we expect any different next year? Will he transfer? I think the key to next year’s come back are all about PG play.