Traffic Jam at the SG-SF
Who is going to get the most playing time at the SG-SF positions in 2011-2012? My friends and I discuss this type of stuff all the time via email. Here’s a quote from one friend who was kind enough to allow it to be reprinted:
I’m trying to work out the minutes for next year (assuming Harrison returns). I can’t see any way we keep starting Dex at shooting guard.
Scenario 1: Dex starts at the 2.
Assumptions: Roy will attempt not to play any guard more than 25/game until the end of the year. Kinda have no choice on bigs though.
Rotation:
Marshall 25 Strickland 15
Strickland 10 Reggie 15 Leslie 15
Barnes 25 Hairston 15
Henson 28 McAdoo 12
Zeller 28 McAdoo 5 Walkon 7????The problem comes when you think about how the rotation would operate. Strickland would pretty much only play the first five minutes of every half at SG. That’s bizarre, to have your starting SG only play 10 minutes at their starting position. Have we ever done something like that in a noncrisis situation??
But if you demote Strickland, you get this balanced rotation:
Marshall 25 Strickland 15
Reggie 25 Leslie 15
Barnes 25 Hairston 15
Henson 28 McAdoo 12
Zeller 28 McAdoo 5 Walkon 7????Thoughts?
It’s an interesting conundrum. Although Strickland is the SG incumbent, he has heavy responsibilities backing up Marshall at the PG. It makes things simpler if Dex comes off the bench, even though he might play more total minutes than any other guard, except Barnes.
Here are the 3 candidates to start at the SG position, if Strickland came off the bench:
- Leslie McDonald
- Reggie Bullock
- PJ Hairston
Leslie McDonald is first in line, given the data we have so far. He has the most experience of the 3 candidates, and has it at that specific position, as opposed to the SF. McDonald may have a lower ceiling than Bullock or Hairston, but he may discover his potential earlier. He could be better at untapping his potential. (It doesn’t matter how high your ceiling is if you can’t climb the ladder to install the chandelier)
Reggie Bullock is a wildcard. Who knows what we will see from him next year, due to the conflicting up-and-down data from his freshman season and the unknown consequences of his summer surgery. He is slated to break out at some point, but when that occurs is anyone’s guess. Plus, his only experience is at the SF position, not the SG. Will the surgery slow him down or speed him up? Can he find his shot? Can he share ballhandling responsibilities?
PJ Hairston has the least experience of the 3 candidates, but may be the best shooter. He may have a more physical presence than Bullock or McDonald, which could work wonders for him on the defensive end. He has the disadvantage of coming into practice to learn the system against incumbents. No doubt, he will have to prove himself to coaches in order to jump both McDonald and Bullock in the rotation. He seems like a college SF, at first glance.
One thing is for certain – with Barnes around keeping most of the SF minutes under his wings, there simply isn’t enough playing time at the backup SF to utilize both Bullock and Hairston. Someone will either have to slide down to the PF (not likely with Watts around) or slide up to the SG spot. The player who shows better at the SG spot in practice may win a greater role in the rotation, especially if Marshall, Strickland, or McDonald miss games during the season due to injury.
When you don’t have the data, you have to go with experience. Bullock has the slight edge over Hairston to be featured as a combo SG-SF. He has an extra year of experience in the system. Even if Hairston is a very fast learner and can digest the system quickly, will Roy use a freshman as a combo before he has proven he can handle one position against ACC competition first?
Do you have an insight or opinion?
If you would like to participate in this conversation, by all means send in an email to uncbasketballrecruiting AT gmail.com and I will include it in this post…