UNC Basketball Recruiting

Posted by: Gutty

Part of what makes this season’s Carolina Basketball team so intriguing compared to the previous two seasons is that there are 11 legitimate players contending for PT, and no real established hierarchy. If I try to sketch out a rotation, I have to start everyone off at 20 minutes and go from there. There are a few megastars in the making (in Davis and Henson)  but as of right now, it’s hard to predict who will get the lion’s share of production done. Here is a few things that are likely to occur, judging from whatever data has been made available so far:

• Justin Watts will get some defensive minutes, due to the inexperience of the backcourt.
• Dexter Strickland’s road to efficiency lies in free throws
• The Wears can bust a zone
• Tyler Zeller’s basketball IQ is underrated, and he’ll have some amazing highlights
• Henson will score through movement from outside-in, rather than from camping in the post
• Henson’s impact can swing both ways
• Our PGs will make you scratch your head sometimes
• Henson will average more rebounds than Deon

1. Justin Watts will get some defensive minutes, due to the inexperience of the backcourt. Watts is capable of providing a burst of defensive intensity for 5 minutes per game. He likes to be very active offensively during pickup games, but don’t expect him to have a green light to shoot. You might see him drive and dish, but with aggressiveness comes risk, and he could also lose his PT by turning the ball over during his opportunities.
2. Dexter Strickland’s road to efficiency lies in free throws. I don’t expect Strickland to shoot an above average percentage from 3-point land. I also don’t expect him to make over 40% of those stop and pop 17-footers he seems fond of on the breaks. However, I do expect him to drive to the basket hard and get hacked often. If he can live at the line, he can be producing in an efficient way.
3. The Wears can bust a zone. If we can’t bust the zone with the guards, perhaps we can try with Travis and David. They should be able to get their outside shot off without restriction and perhaps open up the court like Tyler Hansbrough in his Junior and Senior seasons. In the Midnight Madness scrimmage, the brothers Wear seemed to believe they had the right to take deep shots.
4. Tyler Zeller’s basketball IQ is underrated, and he’ll have some amazing highlights. Perhaps it’s something in the Indiana water that causes Zeller to have almost Larry Bird-like moments, like when he improvs an interior touch pass or  an awkward but accurate scoop into the basketball while flailing underneath the hoop. Zeller has some nifty methods of scoring and creating, and these should start to creep into his game as he gets 20+ minutes/game to become more comfortable in taking risks on the court.
5. Henson will score through movement from outside-in, rather than from camping in the post. Dunks in transition, driving to the hoop and getting fouled, rebounding and starting the fast break – these are situations when Henson seems to score more effectively. Buckets via post-ups and standing around with position in the lane don’t seem to flow as easily. Defensively, Henson looks pretty darn good camping out lower and coming over for the weakside block or goaltend. Roy will earn his golf ball money discovering how to balance those two factors.
6. Henson’s impact can swing both ways. Similar to Danny Green, Henson is capable of bringing a lot of energy into the environment, but that doesn’t mean it’s always going to be good energy. Try to view Henson’s minutes as high risk/high reward situations that Roy will need to manage with skill and mastery for best effect.
7. Our PGs will make you scratch your head sometimes. Both Drew and Strickland have tendencies to make certain errors that will leave you dumbfounded. Problems for both players will show through the cracks given the high exposure, difficulty and history of their quarterback position.  Brainfarts will occur in every game from both.
8. Henson will average more rebounds than Deon. To preface, this is a bold prediction because I am extremely impressed with Deon’s rebounding ability and improvement. In his freshmen year, he averaged 8 rebounds per 40 minutes. In his sophomore year, he averaged 9 rebounds per 40. In his junior year, he again averaged 9 rebounds per 40. That number should rise to 10 rebounds per 40 in 2009-2010. But this kid Henson is like a tree that grows rebounds even when he is out of position. He has arms that scoop up an extra board or two per game, and that is why I believe he will edge out Thompson in the rebounding department.